Short answer: Twenty-five homes sold above $3 million across Lafayette, Orinda and Moraga in the first quarter of 2026, against 16 in the same quarter a year earlier, per Lamorinda Weekly's closing data for January 1 through March 31. That is a 56% increase in one year, and it is the clearest available measure of where San Francisco money is going.
The number that explains the migration
Lamorinda's top end is not drifting upward. It is being bid up by buyers who could purchase anywhere.
It fits the wider pattern. Redfin data reported by Fortune shows Bay Area homes priced between $3.1 million and $7.6 million up 13.4% from November 2022 through May 2026, while homes between $535,000 and $615,000 fell 3.8%. Redfin senior economist Yingqi Xu called it "another sign of the K-shaped economy taking shape in the Bay Area."
The push side is concrete. San Francisco's median two-bedroom rent hit a record $6,020 a month in July 2026, up 25.9% year over year, per Zumper via CBS News Bay Area.
What the three cities actually cost
Lamorinda Weekly published single-family closings for the first quarter of 2026. These are averages, not medians, on modest quarterly samples. Read them as market shape, not a valuation of your house.
City | SFR closings | Average price | Range | Avg DOM | Sale-to-list |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lafayette | 54 | $2,626,037 | $999,999 to $5.6M | 30 | 102.4% |
Orinda | 44 | $2,406,916 | $925,000 to $7.9M | 20 | 100.3% |
Moraga | 21 | $1,964,244 | $1.2M to $2.8M | 14 | 104.2% |
Orinda's range is the widest, from $925,000 to $7.9 million, which tells you the city holds genuinely different housing stock rather than one repeated product. Moraga is fastest and most competitive against asking price, on the smallest sample.
Redfin's figures for the three months ending June 2026 use different methodology and do not belong in that table. On that basis Lafayette's median was $1,998,912 at $912 per square foot, 43.5% above list on 85 sales; Moraga's was $1,780,281, up 4.7%, 46.5% above list on 57 sales. Orinda has no verified 2026 Redfin figure, which is why the Lamorinda Weekly average carries it here.
Be careful with any Lafayette year-over-year number you are shown. Redfin puts it down 8.1%. Zillow puts it up 0.9%. Two credible sources pointing opposite directions usually means the mix of what sold changed more than values did, and anyone quoting one without naming the other is not giving you the picture.
The commute is most of the argument
Rome2Rio, a secondary source rather than a transit agency, puts Orinda to Embarcadero at about 26 minutes, Lafayette at about 31 minutes and Walnut Creek at about 36 minutes, all direct with no transfer. I name that source because station-to-station timings are not reliably published by BART itself, and an attributed approximation beats an invented precise number.
It matters more now than in 2022 because people are going back in. BART recorded 5,403,140 exits in March 2026, up 20% year over year, with weekday ridership above 200,000 for the first time since the pandemic, and San Francisco's AI-native employers had committed to more than 2.8 million square feet of office space as of April 2026.
Schools: the single biggest driver
The Acalanes Union High School District serves Lafayette, Orinda, Moraga and part of Walnut Creek. Niche's 2026 rankings grade it A+ and place it 13th of 466 California districts, first in Contra Costa County and 58th of 10,394 nationally. Its four high schools, Acalanes, Campolindo, Las Lomas and Miramonte, all rank within the top 60 of California's roughly 1,000 public high schools. For most families moving out of the city, that district line is the purchase.
The tradeoff is that the district line is priced in. You are not finding a discount inside Acalanes boundaries.
No city transfer tax, and what that is worth
Lafayette, Orinda and Moraga levy no city transfer tax. A seller pays only the Contra Costa County documentary transfer tax, $1.10 per $1,000.
City | City transfer tax per $1,000 |
|---|---|
Lafayette, Orinda, Moraga | None |
El Cerrito | $12.00, rounded up to nearest $1,000 |
Oakland | $15.00 from $300K to $2M; $17.50 from $2M to $5M |
Berkeley | $15.00 up to $1.7M; $25.00 above $1.7M |
As an illustration of scale, a $2,000,000 Berkeley sale owes 2.5% in city transfer tax today, or $50,000. The same sale in Lafayette owes nothing at the city level. Every city's rate is in the East Bay transfer tax comparison.
None of that makes Lamorinda cheap to own. Contra Costa effective property tax rates typically run roughly 1.10% to 1.40% of assessed value for 2025-26, higher in Mello-Roos areas, and a purchase resets assessed value under Proposition 13. Confirm with your CPA.
The offset nobody advertises: fire
Lamorinda parcels sit in fire hazard territory, and that is the honest counterweight to the schools and the commute. Lafayette adopted its Fire Hazard Severity Zone map on July 10, 2025, covering 7,018 acres, and its Very High zones carry a 100-foot defensible space requirement. The Moraga-Orinda Fire District announced new maps for its two cities on February 28, 2025.
On August 19, 2026 the California Board of Forestry and Fire Protection then voted 8–0 to approve the final draft of its Zone 0 regulations, creating an ember-resistant band in the first five feet around a structure. The rule is not yet in effect: it now goes to the Office of Administrative Law for review, and no effective date has been set. Under the approved draft the rules reach State Responsibility Areas and Very High Fire Hazard Severity Zones inside Local Responsibility Areas, which captures Lamorinda. Confirm the current status at bof.fire.ca.gov. The phasing is in the Zone 0 guide, the carrier questions in buying in the Oakland Hills.
Practically: your Natural Hazard Disclosure will show fire zone items, and you want an insurance quote before you release contingencies. Confirm coverage with a licensed broker.
Frequently asked questions
Is Lamorinda cheaper than San Francisco?
Not at the top of the market. Lafayette averaged $2,626,037 and Orinda $2,406,916 on first quarter 2026 closings, per Lamorinda Weekly, against a San Francisco metro median of $1.7 million in March 2026, per Redfin. Those are different measures. What Lamorinda buys is land and school district per dollar, not a lower price.
How long is the BART commute from Orinda or Lafayette to downtown San Francisco?
Rome2Rio, a secondary source, estimates Orinda to Embarcadero at about 26 minutes and Lafayette at about 31 minutes, both direct with no transfer. Walnut Creek is about 36 minutes. Station-to-station timings are not reliably published by BART itself, so treat these as approximations and check a current schedule.
Do Lafayette, Orinda and Moraga charge a city transfer tax?
No. All three levy no city transfer tax. A sale owes only the Contra Costa County documentary transfer tax of $0.55 per $500 of value, rounded up to the nearest $500, which equals $1.10 per $1,000. Berkeley charges $15.00 per $1,000 up to $1.7 million and $25.00 above. Confirm with your title officer.
How good are the schools in Lafayette, Orinda and Moraga?
The Acalanes Union High School District, serving all three cities plus part of Walnut Creek, is graded A+ by Niche for 2026 and ranked 13th of 466 California districts, first in Contra Costa County and 58th of 10,394 nationally. Its four high schools each rank in the top 60 of roughly 1,000 California public high schools.
Which of the three cities is the most competitive right now?
By first quarter 2026 data, Moraga, at 14 average days on market and 104.2% of list price, though on only 21 closings. Redfin's separate figures for the three months ending June 2026 agree in direction, showing Moraga at 46.5% of homes selling above list against Lafayette at 43.5%. Small samples move.
Sources
- Lamorinda Weekly, Q1 2026 closings, averages — link
- Redfin, three months ending June 2026; Redfin via Fortune, Nov 2022 to May 2026 — link
- Zumper via CBS News Bay Area, July 2026
- BART ridership, March 2026 — link
- Rome2Rio, secondary — link
- Niche 2026 rankings — link
- Contra Costa County Clerk-Recorder — link
- Board of Forestry, Zone 0 final draft approved Aug 19, 2026, pending Office of Administrative Law review — link
Mark Lederer leads The Lederer Team at Red Oak Realty, with 25 years and more than 1,000 closed transactions across the East Bay and Contra Costa. If you are weighing a move out of San Francisco, call 510-774-4231 or email [email protected] to talk it through or get a valuation on your current home.
