Short answer: In the San Francisco metro, a minor midrange kitchen remodel is estimated to recoup 112.4% of its $31,804 cost, while a major midrange remodel recoups 48.5% of $97,667, per Zonda's 2025 Cost vs. Value Report. Same room, opposite outcome, and the only variable is scope. But every figure there is an agent's estimate, not a measured sale.
Read the caveat before you read the numbers
Almost everything published about pre-sale improvements comes from surveys of agents' opinions, not measured sale outcomes. No study matches comparable homes with and without an improvement and measures the price difference.
So when a headline says a project "recoups 237%," what happened is this: a panel of agents was shown a description and photos and asked to estimate what it would add to a home's value. That estimate was divided by a modeled cost. Nobody sold anything.
The methodology in the 2025 Cost vs. Value Report, published by Zonda on September 18, 2025 — the 38th annual edition, 28 projects across 119 markets — runs like this. Job costs are modeled from Bureau of Labor Statistics price indices, localized through Verisk's XactRemodel. Resale values come from an online survey of more than 6,000 Realtors administered through NAR's Realtors Property Resource, benchmarked to 2019. San Francisco is the only Bay Area metro in it; there is no Oakland breakout.
That makes the data directional, not useless. Rank projects against each other; do not forecast a sale price. A 2026 edition is expected around September 2026.
Same room, opposite outcome
The most useful finding here is not which room you pick. It is how far you go inside it.
Kitchen project, San Francisco metro | Job cost | Estimated resale value | Cost recouped |
|---|---|---|---|
Minor kitchen remodel (midrange) | $31,804 | $35,753 | 112.4% |
Major kitchen remodel (midrange) | $97,667 | $47,360 | 48.5% |
Major kitchen remodel (upscale) | $192,231 | $61,686 | 32.1% |
Spending three times as much is estimated to buy about a third more perceived value; six times as much, about three-quarters more. The curve flattens hard and early, and the pattern repeats across the report: additions and gut jobs at the bottom, refresh-scale work at the top.
The bottom of the list says it in reverse. An upscale primary suite addition costs $424,200 and is estimated to add $62,433 — 14.7%. An upscale bathroom addition returns 33.6%, an accessory dwelling unit 34.3%, solar power 35.9%. None of that argues against doing the work. It argues against doing it to sell. An ADU you rent out for a decade is a different decision from one built four months before listing.
The top of the list is small, cheap and outside
Highest recouping, San Francisco metro | Job cost | Estimated resale value | Cost recouped |
|---|---|---|---|
Entry door replacement (steel) | $2,714 | $6,438 | 237.2% |
Garage door replacement | $4,845 | $11,470 | 236.7% |
Manufactured stone veneer | $12,403 | $28,093 | 226.5% |
Minor kitchen remodel (midrange) | $31,804 | $35,753 | 112.4% |
Siding replacement (fiber-cement) | $24,197 | $26,573 | 109.8% |
Treat those three-figure percentages skeptically. They sit on very small denominators, and an agent shown a photo of a new steel door is not separating the door from the fresh paint around it.
There is a useful check on that. NAR's 2025 Remodeling Impact Report, published April 9, 2025, used NARI contractor costs and a value survey of 4,005 NAR members in summer 2024. It put a new steel front door at 100% cost recovery. Zonda put the same project at 237.2%. Two agent surveys, one project, a 137-point spread — that is the size of the uncertainty here.
NAR made another point worth repeating: the projects producing the most joy are systematically not the ones with the best cost recovery. A primary bedroom suite addition, a kitchen upgrade and new roofing all scored a perfect 10 on its Joy Score — and a new primary suite is also one of the two lowest projects on NAR's cost-recovery list, at 54%.
Curb appeal ranks the same way. Per NAR and the National Association of Landscape Professionals, 2023 Remodeling Impact Report: Outdoor Features — costs now three years stale, so read the ranking and discount the dollars — standard lawn care service was $415 against $900 estimated recovery (217%) and a new wood deck $16,900 against $15,000 (89%). NAR also reported that 92% of its members have suggested a seller improve curb appeal: a fact about agent behavior, not buyer behavior.
Staging: report the number honestly
The line you will hear is that staging adds up to 10% to the sale price. NAR's 2025 Profile of Home Staging, published May 6, 2025, surveyed a random sample of 49,806 REALTORS® in February 2025 and got 1,266 usable responses — a 2.5% response rate, ±2.75% margin of error. Of sellers' agents, 29% reported that staging led to a 1% to 10% increase in the dollar value offered. Which means 71% reported none. Among buyers' agents, 17% reported a 1% to 5% increase.
The stronger findings are about speed and comprehension, not price: 49% of sellers' agents said staging decreased time on market, and 83% of buyers' agents said it helped buyers picture the property as their own. Median cost was $1,500 professionally staged, $500 when the agent staged it. A reasonable case for staging — just not the case people usually make.
The one study that randomized anything
Zillow's paint color study, published June 17, 2025, is the exception here. More than 4,200 recent and prospective buyers were randomly assigned images of the same home painted one of 10 colors and asked what they would pay. Random assignment is what makes it an experiment rather than an opinion poll. The honest limit: it measures stated willingness to pay, not transactions.
Color and room | Effect on stated offer price |
|---|---|
Dark gray living room | +$2,593 |
Navy blue bedroom | +$1,815 |
Olive green kitchen | +$1,597 |
Fire hydrant red bedroom | −$1,987 |
Daisy yellow kitchen | −$3,915 |
The downside is larger than the upside: avoiding a color buyers dislike moved the number more than choosing one they liked. Paint before a sale is risk management, not upside capture.
How we decide, given that nobody has measured this properly
Because the evidence base is opinion surveys, we do not make these calls on a national percentage. We make them on three things — the real cost of the work in this labor market, the condition of the specific house, and what buyers on that block expect. Block matters more than city: per Redfin data for the three months ending June 2026, 90.4% of El Cerrito sales closed above list at a 14-day median time on market, while Oakland was 68.5% above list at 20 days. Different buyer pools, different tolerance for deferred work.
Our renovations and repairs group is one of five specialist practices inside our nine-person team — three real estate advisors and six dedicated specialists in finance, mortgage, insurance, estate planning and renovation — with 20-plus years and hundreds of completed projects. In practice: a complimentary cost-vs-value analysis before demolition rather than after, several written bids from verified local contractors so pricing and scope both get checked, and a budget before commitment. When the analysis says do nothing, we say do nothing — the subject of the companion piece on renovating before selling versus selling as-is, and of what it costs to sell a house in Oakland in 2026, since improvements and closing costs come out of the same proceeds. To run this against your address, start with a valuation of your home.
Frequently asked questions
Does a minor kitchen remodel really return more than a major one?
By the estimates, yes. Zonda's 2025 Cost vs. Value Report puts a minor midrange kitchen remodel in the San Francisco metro at 112.4% recouped on $31,804, against 48.5% for a major midrange remodel on $97,667. These are agent estimates of value added, not measured sale prices.
Is staging worth $1,500 before selling?
Often, but not for the usual reason. In NAR's 2025 Profile of Home Staging, only 29% of sellers' agents reported any price increase, so a majority reported none. The stronger findings were time on market, cited by 49% of sellers' agents, and helping buyers envision the space, 83% of buyers' agents.
What is the highest-recouping pre-sale project in the Bay Area?
Entry door replacement, at an estimated 237.2% in the San Francisco metro — $2,714 against $6,438 in added value, per Zonda's 2025 report. Treat that skeptically: NAR's own 2025 Remodeling Impact Report put a steel front door at 100% recovery. Two surveys, one project, a wide gap.
Should I build an ADU before selling my East Bay house?
Not as a pre-sale move. An accessory dwelling unit in the San Francisco metro is estimated to recoup 34.3% — $203,481 against $69,813 in resale value, per Zonda's 2025 report. An ADU you rent out for years is a different calculation from one built before listing.
When does the next Cost vs. Value Report come out?
The 2025 edition was released September 18, 2025, and a 2026 edition is expected around September 2026. In the 2025 edition San Francisco was the only Bay Area metro broken out, so plan on the same limitation: no Oakland table.
Sources
- Zonda, 2025 Cost vs. Value Report, September 18, 2025 — link
- Zonda, San Francisco metro detail — link
- NAR, 2025 Profile of Home Staging, May 6, 2025 — link
- NAR, 2025 Remodeling Impact Report, April 9, 2025 — link
- Zillow, paint color study, June 17, 2025 — link
- Redfin, East Bay city data, three months ending June 2026 — link
Mark Lederer leads The Lederer Team at Red Oak Realty, with 25-plus years and more than 1,000 closed East Bay transactions. Our renovation specialists run a cost-vs-value analysis on your house before you spend anything, and say plainly when the answer is to leave it alone. Call 510-774-4231 or email [email protected].
